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The demand for household energy storage is high, and the global market is booming. We believe that the current demand for energy storage continues to improve, and due to the ToC attribute of household optical storage systems, leading manufacturers that have laid out global sales channels in advance are expected to benefit more; Maintain a stronger industry than market rating.

Key points to support rating

■ European market: Driven by economy, the demand for household energy storage continues to be strong:In 2022, driven by the significant increase in residential electricity prices, the new installed capacity of household energy storage in the European region has skyrocketed. Although the current European government has introduced a "windfall tax" to intervene in energy prices, and natural gas prices are showing a downward trend, we believe that the impact of the above situation on wholesale electricity prices in Europe is relatively limited. This is mainly because the introduction of windfall profits tax is mainly used to limit extreme irrational electricity prices, and after the price limit, the average electricity income of homeowners remains high; The effective control of the natural gas price is the result of the local government actively increasing reserves and limiting consumption. Since the maintenance of the Nord Stream still needs time, we believe that the European natural gas supply and demand relationship is still unable to support the continuous low gas price operation. In addition, even assuming wholesale electricity prices decline, European residential electricity prices are still determined by supply and demand under market-oriented trading mechanisms, rather than a simple cost plus pricing method. Therefore, we expect that residential electricity prices in Europe will remain relatively high, which can support the economy of household light storage systems. In this situation, the demand for household storage in Europe is expected to continue to be strong, and the new installed capacity may reach 13GWh by 2023.

■ US market: demand for backup electricity opens up market space for household energy storage:Although the implementation of net electricity metering policies has weakened the economy of household energy storage in the US market, due to frequent power outages, American residents have strong demands for electricity safety and independence. In this context, household energy storage systems have a more important "home appliance" attribute for American residents. Looking ahead, in addition to energy security demands, the gradual decline of net electricity metering policies and the introduction of subsidies for household energy storage in various states are also expected to jointly promote the increase in demand for household energy storage in the United States. Considering that the current household storage scale in the United States is still small, we expect its demand growth rate to remain high, and the market space is expected to reach 4GWh in 2023.

■ Global market: Energy storage demand blooming at multiple points:In addition to major markets such as Europe and America, the global household energy storage market is also driven by different factors. The development of rooftop photovoltaics in Australia is rapid, with its power generation accounting for 8.1% of the country's total power generation. As a result, the issue of energy consumption is becoming increasingly prominent, and installing household energy storage may become one of the effective solutions. We believe that the proportion of new photovoltaic distribution and storage in Australia is expected to maintain a relatively high level, driving the demand for household storage to improve. The problem of electricity shortage in the South African market is prominent, and there is an urgent need to increase investment in electricity and energy storage. According to the World Bank's prediction, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage batteries in South Africa is expected to grow by 30-55 times between 2020 and 2030. Benefiting from the vigorous development of the aforementioned market, we predict that the global installed capacity is expected to reach around 35GWh by 2023, with a year-on-year growth of about 94%; In the long run, energy storage is a necessary prerequisite for supporting the installed capacity of clean energy, so its potential is significant. From 2023 to 2025, global energy storage installed capacity is expected to continue to improve, with a CAGR of new installed capacity expected to reach 57%.

investment advice

■ The demand for household energy storage is high, and the global market is booming. Driven by the economic efficiency of home optical storage systems, the demand in the European market continues to be strong; The demand for backup electricity opens up space in the US household energy storage market, and due to its relatively small base, the demand growth rate is expected to remain high in the short term; The Australian rooftop photovoltaic market is mature, but the consumption problem is relatively serious. Household energy storage has become one of the main solutions, and the matching rate of solar storage is expected to be relatively high; Emerging markets such as South Africa urgently need new energy and energy storage to help solve power shortages. Based on this, we estimate that the global demand for household energy storage may reach 35GWh in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 94%. From 2023 to 2025, the global energy storage installed capacity continues to improve, with an average annual installed capacity of 57GWh, and the new installed capacity CAGR is expected to reach 57%. We believe that the current demand for energy storage continues to improve, and due to the ToC attribute of household optical storage systems, leading manufacturers that have laid out global sales channels in advance are expected to benefit more. We recommend leading enterprises in the household optical storage sector, such as Paineng Technology, Deye Co., Ltd., Gudewei, Jinlang Technology, Sunshine Power, Penghui Energy, and suggest paying attention to Hemai Co., Ltd., Yuneng Technology, Keshida, etc.

The main risks faced by ratings

■ Risks of international trade friction, unexpected demand growth, price competition exceeding expectations, rising raw material costs or insufficient supply, and technological change.